Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 25, 2022

Update: Analyzing Valuentum’s Economic Castle Index: A Walk Forward Case Study
There are two things generally wrong with a pure economic moat assessment, or economic “moat factor.” First, it is much easier to assess outsize economic returns in the near-term than it is to assess outsize economic returns over the long haul. Quite simply, nobody can predict what will happen tomorrow, and they certainly don’t know what will happen 20 or 30 years from now. Second, a rational investor should generally prefer expected near-term outsize economic returns than expected long-term ones given the uncertainty of the latter--somewhat related to our first point, a bird in the hand (or large economic returns in the near term) is worth two in the bush (or large economic returns in the long run that may not materialize). The time value of money reinforces this notion. Near-term economic returns are generally worth more than long-term ones in real terms, even if they may be smaller nominally. This is where our Economic Castle rating comes in. The goal of the Economic Castle rating is to identify those companies that are likely to generate a lot (or not so much) shareholder value over the foreseeable future. Instead of pondering a guess as to how the landscape will look 20 or 30 years from now, something not even the Oracle of Omaha can do with any sort of certainty (e.g. IBM, KHC), the Economic Castle rating ranks companies based on near-term expected economic returns, or returns that are more likely to be realized as opposed to those that may be built on “castles in the air” over 20-30 time horizons. By evaluating companies on the basis of the spread between their forecasted future return on invested capital (‘ROIC’) excluding goodwill less their estimated weighted-average cost of capital (‘WACC’), we measure a company’s ability to generate an “economic profit” over the foreseeable future, which we define as the next five fiscal years. Companies that generate a forecasted spread of 50 percentage points or more are given a “Very Attractive” Economic Castle rating and firms that are forecasted to generate a spread of 150 percentage points or higher are considered “Highest-Rated”. Firms that carry an Unattractive Economic Castle rating are those that are forecasted to generate a forward ROIC (ex-goodwill) less estimated WACC spread that’s meaningfully below zero (firms near economic parity can receive a Neutral Economic Castle rating, assigned by the Valuentum team).

Jan 17, 2016

Lots to Like About Intel’s 2016: 3D XPoint and Altera!
Intel finished 2015 on a strong note, but is it still headed in a positive direction? We had thought 2016 would be a breakout year for Intel, but will the company still deliver? Regardless, its share price is off to a rough start so far.

Oct 12, 2015

EMC Will Go Private in Giant Tech Deal
Privately-held Dell has announced the acquisition of EMC in the largest “tech-only” deal in history.

Sep 8, 2015

5 US-Centric Undervalued Stocks with Fantastic Economics
With most non-US markets crumbling, the resilience of a still-expanding US economy coupled with a strong greenback may make US stocks relative outperformers. Screen: Economic castles with a high percentage of revenue generated in the US that are trading at a large discount to our estimate of their intrinsic value.

Dec 19, 2014

Stocks Catapult Back To Near All-Time Highs
The markets seemingly are almost completely dependent on what the Fed does or says.

Jun 22, 2014

Valuentum Economic Castle™ Rating Update
Members should expect the initial Economic Castle™ ratings.

Apr 28, 2014

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending April 25
Let's take a look at dividend increases for the week ending April 25.

Dec 28, 2012

Red Hat Continues to Generate Strong Cash Flow
Though earnings growth has been subpar, Red Hat continues to generate copious cash flow.